About & Methodology
Independent, explainable football valuations
FootVal estimates the transfer value of every player in Europe's top divisions with a transparent, rules-based model — then shows exactly how each number is built and where it disagrees with the market. We don't mirror market values; we challenge them, and we show our work.
Why FootVal exists
Market values are useful but opaque: a single crowd-sourced number with no breakdown and no way to see the reasoning behind it. We wanted a valuation you can interrogate — one that says not just what a player is worth, but why, and where the consensus might be wrong. FootVal is an independent second opinion on the transfer market, built to be questioned rather than taken on faith.
How the model works
FootVal is a market-anchored mispricing model, not a black box. We start from a player's market value as a structural anchor, then apply a set of bounded, individually-explainable factors and read the result as a premium or a discount versus the market. Every adjustment is transparent and capped, and the full chain is shown on each player's page — so a valuation is reasoning you can follow, not a number you simply have to trust.
The factors we weigh
Four factors drive each estimate: performance (how a player's output and match ratings compare with what players at his price typically deliver), age and trajectory (where players of the same age and price have historically gone next — young players' values and fees run above the market, veterans' below), contract (time left before free agency) and durability (injuries over the last two years). Caps and honours are not among them: tested on past seasons, they added nothing the market value doesn't already reflect. Each factor is bounded, so no single signal can run away with the value, and each is broken out on the profile so you can see its individual contribution.
How we differ from market values
Sites like Transfermarkt report a market consensus; FootVal produces an independent estimate and quantifies the gap. The headline is the "vs market" delta: where we think the crowd is too high or too low, by how much, and for which reasons. That disagreement — explained factor by factor — is the entire point of the project. And when we agree with the market, the model says so just as clearly.
Data & how often it updates
Squad, age, position, contract and market-value data come from public football sources; performance comes from official season statistics. Values are recomputed whenever the underlying data refreshes, and every page shows the figures behind the estimate. Players are linked to their clubs, leagues and national teams, so the context around any number is always one click away.
Honest about the limits
FootVal numbers are independent estimates produced by a model — not actual transfer fees, offers, or financial advice. Real deals are shaped by negotiation, agents, timing and need that no model fully captures. We publish the methodology and the per-factor breakdown precisely so you can judge each estimate on its merits and disagree with it wherever you see fit.
How FootVal News works
FootVal News covers the day's most important football stories — and only those. Our newsroom reads around 45 outlets in seven languages, from BBC Sport, The Athletic and Marca to kicker, L'Équipe, La Gazzetta dello Sport and TRT Spor, along with the journalists who break transfer news. A story is written only once several independent outlets report it, weighted by their reliability and by how prominent the people involved are. Each article is drafted with the help of AI from those reports, in our own words, and published in seven languages: it names and links every source, keeps confirmed facts apart from reports and rumours, and adds the context only FootVal has — our valuations, contracts and season numbers. A photo appears only when we may use it and it meets a quality bar. When a story moves on, the article is updated and says when; to report a mistake, write to admin@footval.com.
Who we are & contact
FootVal is an independent project built by football and data enthusiasts, with no affiliation to any club, agency or data provider. We welcome corrections, questions and feedback — reach us any time.
Frequently asked questions
- How accurate are FootVal's valuations?
- They are independent estimates, not guarantees. FootVal anchors to the market and then adjusts with bounded, explainable factors, so each number stays grounded while expressing where we think the price is off. Because the full reasoning is shown on every profile, you can judge each estimate for yourself rather than taking it on trust.
- How is FootVal different from Transfermarkt?
- Transfermarkt reports a market consensus; FootVal produces an independent valuation and quantifies the gap between the two. Instead of one opaque figure you get a per-factor breakdown and a clear "vs market" delta showing where — and why — we disagree. That disagreement, fully explained, is the entire point.
- What makes a player "undervalued" or "overvalued" here?
- FootVal reads performance as a mispricing signal: a player who outperforms others priced at the same level is flagged undervalued, while one who underperforms their price is overvalued. When output and price line up, the model sits close to the market. It is a relative judgement within a player's position and tier, not an absolute one.
- How do age and potential affect the value?
- Age is the strongest driver we can measure. On our own history, young players' market values — and the fees clubs actually pay for them — keep rising above what the market lists today, while players past their prime keep falling below it. FootVal applies part of that measured drift: a development premium that shrinks for players already priced as stars, and a depreciation discount past each position's prime — bounded, so it nudges the value rather than re-pricing it.
- What if a player has no recent statistics?
- Players without stats are treated as neutral, never as weak. The performance factor simply sits at neutral — no premium, no discount — so the valuation leans on the market anchor and the other factors. We would rather say we do not have enough to add a view than invent one.
- Where does the data come from, and how often does it update?
- Squad, age, position, contract and market-value data come from public football sources; performance comes from official season statistics. Values are recomputed whenever the underlying data refreshes, and every figure behind an estimate is shown on the page.
- Are FootVal numbers real transfer fees?
- No. They are independent model estimates — not actual fees, offers, or financial advice. Real deals are shaped by negotiation, agents, timing and club need that no model fully captures; we publish the methodology precisely so you can weigh each estimate on its merits.
- Why do you sometimes disagree sharply with the market?
- Because that is what an independent valuation is for. When our factors point one way and the crowd prices another, we show the gap and the reasons behind it rather than smoothing it over. You are free to disagree with us in turn — the breakdown is right there to argue with.
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