48 teams, 12 groups, one trophy — across the United States, Canada and Mexico. We ran our own model over the real draw to call every group, every knockout tie and a champion.
The top two of every group qualify automatically; the eight best third-placed teams join them in the Round of 32.
The 48-team format's brand-new opening knockout round: 24 group qualifiers plus the 8 best third-placed teams. Percentages are each side's chance of winning the tie.
From the Round of 16 to the final in New Jersey. Each percentage is that team's chance of winning the match in front of it.
Every nation's chance of lifting the trophy, summed across all the paths our model simulates.
Odds come from propagating each match's win probability through the full bracket — so a softer route can outweigh a marginally stronger squad.
Every nation gets a FootVal Power Index — anchored on the April 2026 FIFA World Ranking, then adjusted for 26-man squad depth (the 2026 finals expand squads to 26, so bench quality counts) and current form. Group tables follow that rating; the eight best third-placed teams are slotted into the Round of 32 by FIFA's official rules. Each knockout tie is scored with a logistic model on the two ratings — which yields both the bracket above and the exact title odds.
A model, not a crystal ball — for the love of the game, not your betting slip.
Every champion and every Golden Boot, from Uruguay 1930 to Qatar 2022.